The Capital's social, economic and demographic changes over the next eight years are revealed in a report published today.

In 2016, the Edinburgh will have 8000 more older people, putting a huge strain on the council's health and care services.

The rise is the result of the post-war generation getting older, as well as advances in medicine meaning people live longer.

Massive increases are expected in the number of primary and pre-school pupils, but the average household size is set to plummet and Edinburgh could struggle to fill 38,000 job vacancies.

The report, Change in the City, by the council chief executive Tom Aitchison, predicts rises in car ownership and demand for public transport, increasing congestion. It also highlights the city's housing crisis, with the average first-time buyer now paying 8.2 times their salary to purchase a home.

Mr Aitchison also predicts an increase in substance misuse, which will raise crime levels.

City leader Jenny Dawe said: "It's clear that the city we can expect to see in ten to 15 years will be markedly different from the one we live in now. These changes will impact on council services and in particular the report shows the additional pressures Edinburgh faces as the capital city."

She pointed to affordable housing investment – Edinburgh receives only 15 per cent of government investment despite having 74 per cent of the need.

"We must also consider the needs of an ageing population," Ms Dawe said. "We need to ensure that the balance of care shifts towards supporting people in their own homes for longer."

She added: "Exciting times are ahead for people living in Edinburgh as the city's reputation and popularity continue to grow."

Mr Aitchison's report highlights a rise of 38,000, or eight per cent, in Edinburgh's population and a 17 per cent rise by 2031.

The UK has a growing elderly population not only because of medical progress, but also because those in retirement were the first generation to benefit from the "cradle-to-grave" welfare system.

However, experts fear Scotland's health now – marred by obesity and alcohol abuse – could cut life expectancy in the future.

Douglas McLellan, policy advisor with Age Concern Scotland, said: "The number of older people in Scotland will increase considerably, well into the next decade and beyond.

"The City of Edinburgh Council, NHS Lothian and other statutory bodies across Scotland need to start planning now.

Mr Aitchison sees the housing crisis as "one of the biggest challenges facing Edinburgh".

A Shelter Scotland spokeswoman said: "Edinburgh urgently needs an increased supply of affordable homes for rent. If this doesn't happen, then the next ten years could see the number of Edinburgh households in temporary accommodation or waiting for a house rise."

EDINBURGH'S FUTURE BY NUMBERS

Housing
The already low average household size in the city is projected to decrease further from 2.10 people per household to 1.96.

Single households are expected to increase most rapidly and will replace couples as the predominant type in about 2010.

The traditional parents-plus-children unit is expected to decrease from 16 per cent of households to 13.5 per cent.

Edinburgh needs 12,000 new affordable homes over the next ten years. In 2007/08, the city received £36.1 million investment, which will only deliver about half this number.

Population
Edinburgh's population is projected to increase by eight per cent, or 38,000, by 2016 and by 79,500 by 2031.

School and pre-school populations are projected to increase by more than 5000 by 2016, with a 20 per cent rise in pre-school numbers but a 2500 fall in those of secondary school age by around 2500.

By 2016, the elderly population will have largely missed the losses inflicted on previous generations by world wars. The largest proportional population increases are expected to be ten per cent in the 65-to-84 age group, and 30 per cent in the 85-plus group.

Transport
Sixty per cent of households in Edinburgh have access to a car and this is rising.

Car use is becoming more frequent and the average length of journeys is rising.

Travel-to-work trends suggest a shift towards public transport, cycling or walking, but the population growth will add massive pressure to the city's transport network – with increased car usage leading to more congestion and increased demands for parking.

Public transport, cycle networks, and park-and-ride facilities to tempt people out of cars are said to be "essential".

Economy
Skilled workers will be required for an estimated 38,000 extra jobs in the city by 2017. Growth in the working-age population may not meet this demand.

Job numbers in primary and manufacturing industries are expected to fall and those in service industries to rise.

A continued supply of migrant workers will be required to support projected economic growth.